õ Դϴ.
õ Żö
Ʒ 縦 ϴ.
Ƿ Ȯ ó ..
ϸ ֱ
18 뼱 չ ſ. Ŀ
۾
츮 ۾Ⱑ ȸ ϴµ ⿩ ڴ. 谩
ϴ
ȸǿμ Ҵ, ; ׷ ߴ å ߴ.
õ 7, ǹ
籸 57 (̵ ȣ )
õ ڽ
дü (Ѱܷ ö )
   
ַд(423) 11 6 ߰ ȭ ¸ ɼ ơΰ Ʈ
  ȣ 193736  ۾ Ѹ  ȸ 1860   59 (64,5, 12:3:1)   2018-11-2 23:37 4

ַд(423) 

 

11 6 ߰ ȭ ¸ ɼ

ΰ Ʈ

 

-̱ ϴ 縦 ϶, ŷڰ , ְ... Ʈ Ӹ ʴ´. ƹ Ǹ ̶ ѵ ; ϴ . Ÿ ƴ ൿ -( ߿)

 

 

Ҽ ߰ſ й ¡ũ

߰ſ ˷ Ư¡ ϳ Ҽ й ¡ũ. ݰ ֡ȭ ü ġ 1862 ߰ 39 36ʳ Ҽ Ǵ ȸ Ǽ ٰ ǿ. 1894 Ŭ(Grover Cleveland) Ʒ ġ ߰ſ ִ 125 Ѱ ū й踦 Ͽ.

2008 ʷ 缱 ٸ ù ߰ſ 2010⿡ ƼƼ(Tea Party) ȭ dz ִ 63 ѱ й ޾.   ߰ſ ұ. ġڵ ħ ֿ Ŵ´. ɼſ ȭ ϸ ߴ ڵ 2 ȭ ġǿ Ǹ ǥ忡 鼭 Ҽ ۿ ٴ ̴.

ɼŰ ַ ĺ ϳ ǥε ߰Ŵ ɿ ǥ(referendum) ϴ. ׷ٺ ϶̶ ʿ Ģ ҼӴ ߰ й谡 ſ ̴.  Ҽ ߰ſ Ǽ ø ʴ ̱ 翡 ̴.

1932 罺Ʈ(Franklin D. Roosevelt) . Ȳ̶ ȸ Ȳ 1 ̶ Ȳ е ǥ ɿ 缱 ǿ. ٷ 2 ġ 1934 ߰ſ Ҽ Ͽ 9 Ǽ ÷ȴ. 1998 ߰ſ ŷ ġ(Newt Gingrich) Ͽ ̲ ȭ dz ¾ ϰ Ҵٴ ̴.

 αⰡ Ŭ ߹ źٱ г ڵ Ͽ ִ翡 5 . 2001⿡ 911 ׷ Ⱥ ΰ ν ɰ ȭ ϴ ν ̵ ߰ſ Ͽ 8 2 ø ǿ. 2019 1 3 ϴ 116 ȸ ϱ ߰Ŵ 35 Ͽ ü 435 Ѵ.

켱 Ÿ 캸. 6 ӱ⸦ ǿ Ǽ 35 ɷִ. ִ Ҹ ̴. ˷ (Sanders) 2 Ҽ ǿ ̹ ſ . ̵ ִ ǿȸ ϹǷ ᱹ ִ Ѿ ־ Ǽ 26̴. ȭ 9 Ǽ ϰ ִ ǿ Ųٸ 2 (ȭ 51, ִ 49) ִ.

9 翡 ִ Ҹ . 뽺Ÿ , εֳ , ָ , ÷θ , ƮϾ , ³ ̴. ַ еǴ ȭ Ǽ ׹ٴ, ָ, ׳׽ Ұϴ. ٽ ִ ̹ ſ 6 ϰ ȭ Ǽ 3 2 ¸ؾ ȸ ټ Ǵ Ȳ̴. Ǽ ִ Ҹϴ.

ȭ ټ 116 ɼ ũ. Ʈ ݴϴ CNN е Ʈ Ͽ ȭ Ͽǿ ִ 켼 ϰ ̱ ε ߼ ȭ ʿ .

 

ڴ ΰ Ʈ ,

縦 ϴ°. ̷ ʴ´, 201810 30 Ʈ ̱ ɿ ̡'߹ ǡ 뱳 ȸ ѱⳭ硹 ˰ յ 翡 44% 40% ޶ Ÿ.

׳ ϳ 簡 ޶ ҽ 簡 ö󰡴 ׷ ƾ Ѵ, Ʈ 2228 ǽõ 1õ 500 ְ 翡 4%Ʈ ǿ.

̴ ĸ ϶ 30 Ʈ 4%Ʈ ߳ ҹԱ ̹ڿ θ𡤾Ƶ ݸå ƴ 6 ־. 45% 41% . Ʈ ǽϴ 翡 10 4344% ִ.

79 3 40% ̴ٰ, 11 6 ߰Ű ӹϸ鼭 پöٴ ̴. ƮƮ(WSJ) NBC (10 1417 ǽ) 47% Ÿ  . Ʈ(WP) ABC (10 8~11 ǽ) 8 36% 5%Ʈ 41% ߴ.

׷ 2123 PBSۡNPR Ʈ 39%, 42% 3%Ʈ ϶ ̴. ״ ̹ ߰ Ÿ յ ȭ翡 ؼѴ. ռ 22Ϻ ︸ ҷν Ʈ ɿ ̾ ٸ ߱ ٽλ л翡 13 ߹ ޵ƴ. ̾(56) ȭ Ʈ ڷ 巯.

ε Ʈ ̱ ӹ ߰ Ÿ ̷ ߴ. ߰Ű 3ֵ 10 18 ³ ִ Ǵ Ǽ Ʈ 귿 ij ذ ī(caravane) ִ ī û ̴. 11 6 ߰ Ÿ յΰ ȸ ϱ ȭ ִ ο ġ ִ.

ȭ ĺ ռ 󺸴 鼭 ̵ ġ ̺(ִ ٶ) ó ִٴ ´. 2016 ̴뼱 ǿ ִ ĺ 켼 Ȳ Ʈ ( Ʈ ϴ ) ٽ ǻƳ Ͼ ִٴ м Ѵ. Ʈ ǰ ִ ߳ µζ󽺿 ̱ ̵ϴ ̹ġī(caravane)̴.

  ڱ ̱ ȹϴ ǥ ̵ ̱ ̹ ص ڱϰ ִ. 12 160 Ը ׸ ߽ 7500 þ. ۳ ī DZ ̹ó Ը ó̴. ӰԵ ̵ 11 6 ߰ ̱ 濡 ٴٸ δ.

  귧 ij(Brett Kavanaugh ǵ鿩 ִ ī ̿Ϸ ȹϿ. ڸ ȭ ij븦 ݴߴ ִǥ ڰ ڿ ȣϰ ִ.ġ ڳΡ ȭ δ 귧 ij: ݴ ȸ (angry mobs) ,ij븦 ! ΰ ڸ ڱϰ ִ.

̹ ߰Ŵ Ʈ ο ù 򰡴. 2 ġ ϴ ء Ҹ. ׷ Ʈ Ҽ̳  ϴ ƴϴ. α ̴. ׵ ȭ ġ ݸ Ʈ ȭ ǥ忡 , ü Ҽ ̱ü 30%eh Ѵ. ׵ ǥ忡 ʴ´. ׷ ε ü Ÿ ǥ忡 ´, Ҽ 70% μ ձ ʴ.

  ε ҹ ߴ ǥ Ƶ ٺ ִ, ׷ Ҽ ̱ ϳ. ݸ鿡 ȸ å 缱 ɼ ̷ Ʈ ȭ ѷ ۿ . Ʈ ڵ ߴ翡 г ĺ ̶͡ ϸ ⸦ õϰ ִ.

 

ߡFive Thirty Eight:538 ȭ¸

  Ǽ Ȳ , 10 ޿ ڽſ ǿ ߵǴ Ȳ̶ ؼ ִ. ִ

9 ǡij(Kavanaugh) ,

10 ī(caravane) ֱ Ϸ ̹ ̶ Ѵ.

ִ翡 ġȭ Ѵٴ ξ. ׷ ִ ij(Kavanaugh)ǰ ̹ڹ (ī caravane) Ʈ Ű ȿ Ҵ. ִ ׷ ʾҴ. ſ ռ ̷ ǥ ھ ȭ Ÿ ִ.

24 Ÿӽ(NYT) ǥ , ȭ ִ ũ ռ Ÿ. ȭ ռ ÷θ , ػ罺 , εֳ 7 ݸ ִ ׹ٴ 1 ǥ ռ ִ. 51ֿ 7 ǥ Ű Ǵ ƴ и̿ ε ȭ 򸮴µ ۿϿ. Ʈ ÿ ̰ ִ.

ֱ ƮƮ(WSJ) NBC 翡 Ʈ 47% ߴ. ϳ Ÿ ȴ, .ij ø ص Ʈ 40.6% ӹ ߹ Բ ¼ Ÿ Ѵ. ̱ ü ʴ .  ֵϴ ȥ̰ Ⱑ ڵ  ֵϿ.

ϰ ڽź ùٸ Ȱ ־ Ѵ. ̱ б ӽ 鿡 ܵ ش. л鿡Ե Ӿ ִ б ִ. ̷ ȯ濡 16 17 б Ŭ л ˴ ٴ ̱ ε鿡Դ ҹ ϻ ȭ ڵ̰ų ڵ̴. ƹ ʴ´.

ü ʴ ̱ ¹ ɰϱ ϴ. װ ġȭ Ǵ ü ̴. WSJ ij뿡 ִ Ͱ ī ̹ ִ ȭ ٽ ȿ ִ١ мϿ. ׷ ִ ݰݵ ġ ʴ. ij ࿡ г а Ʈ ()Ʈ ϰ ִ.

ֱ Ʈ(WP) 翡 ִ 65% ȭ(35%) ũ ռ. 2 ̵ Ʈ Ұ 6%Ʈ Ͱ 񱳵ȴ. ⿡ ִ Ը ڱݱ ִ . 漱ȸ(FEC) 9 Ͽ ķ ִ(6 8000 ޷) ǰ ȭ(54000 ޷) ũ ռ ִ.

 ִ ߰ſ ¸Ѵٰ ص ϰ Ǵ Ʈ ź ȭ ɼ 0% ̴. 3 2 źپ Ǵµ, Ǽ 49 51 ȭ ټ̴. Ŀ DZ ̴. 1998 Ŭ ɿ Ű ˴ źپ Ͽ ǵ ΰ ִ.

̱ ȸü ȭ ȯ  ṵ̈ ȸ̴. 2 ǿ , , ǥڸ ŷ ̴´. Ͽǿ 435 2⸶ ǿ 100 ӱⰡ 6 2⸶ 3 1 ü ŷ ̴´. ̹ ߰ſ Ͽ Ǽ 35 ɷ ִ.

ȭ ο ټ, ̹ ߰ſ ȭ ɼ ̹ϴ. ƴ ٰ ؾ Ѵ. ӱⰡ ִ ǿ 26 ̵Ǵ ſ ִ ټ ſ ƴ. ȭ ִ Ǽ 51 49 ϴ. ִ ̵Ǵ 26 Ű ȭ 2 Ѿ ; ϴ Ȳ ִ.

  ̾ ũ ۿϴ ǿ Ư ȭ ټ δ. ߰ Ʈ Ͽ Ǽ ִ. ִ (218) Ϸ, Ǽ(195) Żȯϰ ߰ ּ 23 ȭκ Ѿ ; Ѵ. װ Ұϴٴ ̴. ̱ǡFive Thirty Eight:(538) ̹ Ŵ ․ Ͽ ȭ ټ̶ ̶ Ͽ.

 

ߡ̺ Ƽ (Five ThirtyEight:538)

̱ ͸ ϴ о߰ Ͽ. Ȯ ִٴ¡Five Thirty Eight (538) ̴, ʴ´. ͸ м, ϴ ̴. ſ ϴ ƴ϶ Ѹ θ Ѵ.Five Thirty Eight(538) 2012 뼱 50 뼱 ߸鼭 Ÿ Ǿ.

Ѹ ͸ Խ ̸ Ѵٴ ̴, ġε ʵ Ƿ ڰ Ѵ. ׷Five Thirty Eight:(538) ġ ſ Ѵ.Five Thirty Eight (538) ġ ΰ Ÿ ͸ ϰ Ȯ ϴ Ÿ е, T.V̳ ̵ å ũٰ Ѵ.

Five Thirty Eight (538) ̹ ŵ ȭ ¸ Ѵ. Ρϴ оߴ ġ о߸ پѾ о߷ ǿ ̰ ִ, Ȳ 맟 ִ, , ְ о, о, Ÿϱ پ о߸ а 맟 ߴ Ѵ. о߰ ̿ ̶ Ѵ.

 Five Thirty Eight(538) ִ Ǽ ݺ þ ȭ Ǽ е Ѵ, ֳϸ ִ翡 ι ٰ Ѵ. ̵ ״ ٸ鼭 ι ù° Ŵ´. ̹ 踦 밨 Ƽ ൵ ִ ǥϴ ι ƴ϶ ̴.

׳డ 뼱 ⸶ϸ 缱 Ұϴٰ Ѵ. ִ Ͽ 8 Żȯ ϴ Ұϴٰ ϰ ִ. ֱ ִ (ī(caravane) ̱ ̹ İ Ʈ ijٳ:(Brett Kavanaugh) ǻ ߹ ȭ ݰ ϰ ִ.

߰Ŵ 翡 Ǽ ϴ. ȸ Ƿ ߴ ̵ϴ 찡 Ϲ̴. 170 ȸ 43 ߰Ű ġµ, ̱ 3 ̾.

ù ° 1934 Ȳ(Ŭ 罺Ʈ),

° 1998 ִ ȣȲ( Ŭ),

911 ֵ ׷( W ν)  ߰(midterm elections).

 (Senate) 뷫 3 1, Ͽ(House) (435), ׸ () ֱ⿡ , ȸ, ȸ , ϴ ̴. 4 ӱ ߰ ġǷ ߰Ŷ ̸ پ. ̸ ǥ (off-year elections)̴. ̱ ߰Ŵ ǿ Ҵ (Apportionment Act) 1872 μ ¥ ġ Ͽ. 

߰ ǥ ɼſ 10% ̻ ġ δ. 2008 뼱 ǥ 40 ̷ 57.1% 2 2010 ߰ſ 36.9% ϶ߴ. ׷ ǹ̴ ʴ. 2 ȸ Ƿ ٲ ְ, 2 Ŀ 缱 Ȥ ü ֱ ̴. ߰ſ ĺ 50 ָ پ 漱 ģ.

ĺ 漱 3 6 ػ罺 ֿ ġ. ݸ ֳ ߰ 11 6Ͽ ĺڿ 缱 Ѳ Ѵ. ׸ŭ ̱ ָ Ű 簢̶ ̴. ̷ٺ ̱ ġǿ ĺڴ  ſ Ȯ е ʴ ǡ ķ(permanent campaigning) ڸ ǿ. ڸ ִ ڴ Ѹ ſ , Ÿ , ؾ ̴.

 

Ʈ ſ Ρ̴ȭߵǰ ִٴ

Ʈ ̿ ϴ 縦 ϶, ŷڰ , ְ, Ӹ ʴ´. ƹ Ǹ ̶ ѵ ; ϴ . Ÿ ƴ ൿ 2018 11 1 Ʈ ̱ 鸸 ϰų Ϻ ٹⰡ ƴٴ ʿ䰡 ̶ ߴ.

 Ʈ ߰ſ ⺻ ´. ̿ ûߵκ ȯ ޴´. 111 ̳ ָ ÷ƿ ߰ ȭ 谡 ſ ١ ǰ ִ١ װ . ϰ ͽ ܽŵ ϸ Ʈ ٸ ɵ ƴµ ׶ 츮 Ͽ. .

׷ 츮 ִ. ϵ, ƹ͵ ߻簡 ١ Ͽ. ׷鼭 Ʈ ءſ ϱ⸦ Ѵ.硸 پ Ǹ Ųٸ 縦 ֱ⸦ Ѵ. . Ʈ ó 񽺸 ϴ ɵ ̴. ̳ Ʈ ܱ Ƴ ̱ ϱ⵵ ߴ.

״ κ ߻簡 ٴ ̵ װ ų °󡹰 Ѵ. ״ ؼ 츮 󿡼 ϴ ߾ Ѵ. ׵ ̶ Ҹ ϱ⵵ Ͽ. ׷ Ʈ üδ ؼ ΰ ʴ´.

ȭ 縳 . ȭ ϶ ̱ 䱸 谳 ȭ ÿ Ѵٴ е ѡൿ Ģ ɰϰ ϴ ȴ. ̱, ε ȭ յǰ ο 踦 ڰ , 縦 Ѵٴ ȭ Ģ ʴ´.

¦ ʴ ڸ ٴ θ . ̸ Ʈ Ư θ. ̶ ̴. ٹ̻ ߻  ġ. ׷ٸ ̻ ߻ ߴ 1 Ѱ ѿԴٸ, ̿ 翬 ؾ ̴.

׷ 縦 Ǯ ʴ´ٴ Ʈ ΰ ٹ ְ Ǯڴٴ ῩǾ ϴ ̴. ϴ , ϴ , ǥϴ , Ʈ , ߿ϴ. ͵ 뿡 ŷڰ Ѵٸ ƹ ҿ . Ʈ и 4ǡǹ𡷰 9 Ѵٰ ̴, Ű Ѵٸ ȴ.

ϰ ٽ¡ǥ ܰ ݰ 簳 5.24ġ  Ǫ ʼ̴. ׷ ̱ ̸ ݴѴ. ν ش ְ ִ ص ƴϴ. ̱ Ǹ ѿ ֱ Ϸ ϴ°. ι° ȭ ̱ å ϼ سٴ ϴ ̴.

ȭ å öȸ Ÿ ϴ ̴. ΰ ΰ赵 ׷ ؾ ϴ ´. Vs. å öȸ ̱ ̸ ϰ, Ȯε Ͽ. , Ʈ ٹ ذ  ƴ϶, ϼ ̰ ȭ ȭ ´ٴ ؾ߸ Ѵ.

ٽ ϼ ݿ ̱ Ǿ ٹ ذ ġܱ ۿ óٴ ˾ƾ Ѵ. ϼ ־ Ѵ. ׷ ŭ, ̰ Ʈ , ġ ȭ ߰ ¸ Ʈ ɿ ִ ġ νؾ Ѵ.

ó ̰ ٹ 2017 11 29 ¿ϼ ϴ Ǿ Ѵ. , ϼ Ǿ 鿡 ̱ Ʈ Ȳ ܸ ̴. ۿ .

̱ öϰ б (NPT)ü , ϰ Ȳ ̱ ڽ ̸ ܱ ذ ǿ ̴. 2018 4 ä ѷ 뼱 ȯ ̱ ٹ ذῡ ѷ ۿ ۿϰ Ǿ ؾ Ѵ.

Ʈ 鸸 ϰų Ϻ ٹⰡ ƴٴ ʿ䰡 ִٸ. ׸ 츮 ִٰ Ѵٸ. ϵ, ƹ͵ ٰ Ѵٸ 硷 ̴. ׷ ص ̴.( 2018 113)

 

...............................................................................................................................................................

ڷ᡽

Ʒ 9 29 ݷҺ п 21⿬ 2018 ȭ(2018 Global Peace Forum on KoreaGPFK) ǥ ǥ й̴. ȭ , . . . . 6 ġ , , Ͽ.

λ 160 ȸ Ȳ ǿ. Ư ϼմ ϰ Ȯ ־. Ѵ. ܱ ε ʵ Ѵ. ſ 롵

 

 

ݵ ȭ ͡

,̰ ȭ  

 

ϼմ ۼ  

 

 

 

 

ݵȭ ǿ ִ ߴɻ ǰ ִ. ֱ ñ 츮 ȭ ݵ ȭ ȯ ϱ Ͽ źƮ ߻ ѵ ̾ Ϻ ϰ ̱ظ ȯϴ ̸ֵ ȭȣ ġ ̾ Ͽ.

̱ ϱ Ǿ ־ ̱-յ翬 Ͽ 츮 ڱϴ ൿ ϴ ġ ϰ ִ. ׷ ݵ ȭ ϱ Ͽ ̰͸δ ϸ ݵ 迡 ִ ̰踦 ŷڿ Ͽ ȭϴ ǿ Ѵ.  

 

1. ݵ ȭ » ݵ ȭ   

ݵȭ » 츮 ȭ ݵȭ Ȯ ش ݵȭ ո̸ Ǽ 浵 ã ν ʷ ȴ.

 

 (1) ݵ ȭ »  

» ݵ ȭ ó ٷ 츮 ȭ ̸ ݵ ȭ 츮 ȭ ǥ. ݵ ȭ ݵ ٹ ߻ Ͽ, ٽ Ͽ ݵ ̱ ٹⰡ , , ǰ 츮 ȭ Ͱ Ͽ ̴.  

ݵ ٹ 1950뿡 ̱ ׽Ʈ ԡ ٹ⸦ ̸鼭 ߻Ͽ ̱ ٹȭϰ ȭ ϸ鼭 츮 ȭ Ӿ Ͽ ɰ .  

1958 1 29 ̱ ݵ ݺ ׽Ʈ ԡ̽ϰ 븦 ġϰ װ Ͽ. ̱ ٹ⸦ 鿴µ 1980 ߿ ̹ 1720 ٹⰡ ǿ¹ ġ ̱ٹ 4 ̻ Ͽ.  

̰ 츮 ȭ ʷϿ. ĵ Ŀ 츮 ȭ ʾ Ŀ. ݵ ֺ ̱ ڻ ↓ ظ ȭ, ȭ ǿ ̱ 츮 ȭ Ÿ ̶ ÷ ؿԴ.   ݵ ȭ ٷ ̱ ̷ ĽŰ Ͽ 츮 ȭ » .

  

 (2) ݵȭ 츮 ȭ

ɵ Ͻÿ.

ݵ ȭ ϼּ ̸ 츮 ȭ ϰ Դϴ.( 25 438)  

ݵ ȭؾ Ѵٴ ϼ ɵ ̴. õ ϴ ְɵ ݵ ȭ 츮 Ծ ϰϸ Ȯεϴٰ ϰ Ŵ. ݵ ȭؾ Ѵٴ 츮 ȭ ϰ Ģ̴. ݵȭ 츮 ȭ Ȱ ũ 2ܰ ִ.  

1ܰ 츮 ȭ ٱ ź ݵ ȭ ϱ ̴ܰ. 쿡 ѹٿ ñ õ ٹⰡ ǿ ־ 츮 ȭ ѱ ٹ⵵ . Ǿ ұ ӿ 츮 ȭ ̱ ׽ ǿ. 츮 ȭ ݵȭ ϸ Ͽ ִ ←Դ.  

1959 ƽþƿ ڹⰡ ȭ븦 â ߱,

1981 Ͼƽþƺâ,

1984 ֱ 츮 ̱ ȸ㿡 籹 ϴ 3ȸ㰳,

1986 ݵ ȭ , 1994 ο ȭü ü ̱ ҵ 츮 ȭ ٱ ź ݵ ȭ ϱ 󸶳 γ ְ ؿԴ° ְ ִ.   

» ڷᰡ ִ ٿ 1958 2006 ݼ⵿ 츮 ȭ 츮 ݵ ȭ Ͽ Ѵٰ ̱ ȸ ȣ ̸ Ͽ Ǽ ߱ ȵ ؿԴ. ׷ ݵ ȭ Ͽ 츮 ȭ Ͽ. ⿡ ֵǴ 츮 ȭ ݵȭ ߵҼ ִ ѵ ־. 

2ܰ 츮 ȭ ٺ ź ݵ ȭ ϱ ܰ, 2006 ÿ ̸ ̴ܰ. ν2 ǽñ⿡ ̸ 츮 ȭ Ͽ. ñ⿡ ̸ ̱ 츮 ȭ ׷ , ࡷ̶ 츮 ̿. 

2002 1 ̱ ٹ򰡺 츮 ȭ åȭϿ 9 ǥ Ⱥ ̱ Ÿ ൿ ÿ ٹ⸦ ̶ ǥϿ. ν 2 ɿ 漺 ¼ 亸 ۼϿ ȸ Ͽµ ű⿡ ݵ ޻¡ ߻Ͽ ̱ ٹ⸦ ̷ 쿡 Ͻü ı ٹ⸦ Ͱ ̸ ؾ Ѵٴ ־.  

̱ ִ ¿ Ͽ ιΰȭ ֱǼȣ ߴ, ٺ ǿ 2006 10 9 ù Ͽ. ׷ 츮 ٺ ó ٺ ü ִ ƴϿ. 츮 ٺ 츮 ȭ ̱ Ϲ 峻 ݵ ȭ ߵϴµ ־.

츮 ù ϱ 2006 10 3 ǥ ȭ ܹ ǻܺ 츮 ȭ ٺ ݰ ְ Ѵ. ̸ ٹ⸦ ö ̴١ µ ̰ 츮 ְ ִ.  

  ߿ ιΰȭ ݵ ȭ ϰ ٱ ٹ ö並 ߵϱ Ͽ ̴١ ε ̰ 츮 ȭ ٴ Ͱ 츮 ٺ ݵ ȭ ϰ ȭ ߵϴµ ִٴ ̴.   

ٽ ϸ 츮 ٺ

  ݵ ߹ ϰ,

  ݵȭ ߵϱ ϴµ ֵǴ ־.

츮 ȭ ٺ Ŀ ȭ ȭ ݵ ȭ ϱ ʾҴ.   6ȸ 츮 ȭ ȸ Ʋ Ÿ ȿ ݵ ȭ ϱ ؿ .

2013 2017 ° Ǽ μ ѵ ȭؿ 5Ⱓ ̱ MAD(mutual assured destruction: ̷ 迡 ֹ ȣ ĸ ɷ ֱ Ͼ ʴ´)踦 ϰ ݵȭ ߵϱ , ȭȭ ̿.  

ٺ ؾ ¥ ü̴.  ̳  纸 ѡī塷 ƴ϶ ô ν ̷ 츮 信 龺 ȭ ִ ϰ ̸ ݵ ȭ ִ ̶ ڱ ֱǰ , ϱ Ͽ 츮 ã ̿.

 

 2. ݵȭ ,ȭü ̰ ȭ  

ݵȭ 츮 ȭ Ϲ ⸦ ǹ ʴ´. ݵȭ ݵ ܺ ϴµ Ͽ ݵ ٹⰡ ̴. ̰ ũ κ Ǿ ִµ ϳ ݵ ̱ ϴ κ̸ ٸ κ ׿ ϰ 츮 ȭ ٺ ̱ ؼҽִ κ̴.  

⼭ 츮 ٺ ̱ Ͽ μ ̱ ̸ 츮 ٺ ̴. ٽ Ͽ ̱ 츮 ٺ ΰ迡 ִ. ⼭ ߻ ̱ (independent variable)̸ 츮 ٺ ׿ Ӻ (dependent variable)̴.

  κ ΰ̸鼭 Ī̴. ̱ ȭǸ ɼ 츮 ٵ ȭǰ Ǿ ְ ̱ 0 ̸ 츮 ¿ ʿ並 ʰ ȴ.  ׷ 츮 Ϲ 츮 ̱ 翩ο Ѵ. Ƿʴ ʷ ȴ. ̷ ݵȭ ̱ ǿ ذ ִ ̴.  

ٽ Ͽ ̱ Ŵ ݵȭ ʱǥ ÿ ȭ ⺻̴. 츮 ȭ ̱ ϴµ ̰ 踦 ûϰ ̰踦 ȭϴ ̴.  

츮 ȭ ̱ ̴. ϳ ̱ ٹ⸦ ִٴ , ̸ ٸ ϳ ̱ 츮 ȭ å ǽϰ ְ ¿ ִ 뱹 å, ɸ ̴. 

̱ ñ ϱ Ͽ 2 ǿ ߿ ° ϴ ̴. Ƿʷ 츮 ȭ ̳߱ ξ ʴ´. װ 츮 谡 ƴ϶ ģ 踦 ΰ ֱ ̴.

׷ 츮 ȭ ̱ 谡 û ʴ´ٸ 츮 ̱ 1 ٹⰡ Ǵ Ȯϱ Ǹ װ Ȯ Ŀ о ȴ.   

̰ ̱ ־ ̴. ̱ ̳ , ̽ ʰ 츮 ̱ 츮 迡 ֱ ̸ ϰ ִ ̱ ̴. ̷ ̰ȭ ݵȭ ⺻, ̸ ʿ(necessary condition)̴.

̰ ݵȭ ǵ ο ġ (intervening variable)̱⵵ ϴ. ñ ٹ ϰ ׸ ذϱ õ ־ ȭǥ ޼ ٷ ̻̿ ϴ 踦 û ѵ ִ.

1994 ̻̿ ü ̱⺻ǹ, 6ȸ㿡 ü 9.19, 2.13 ݵ ȭ ǥ ðǥ ϰ ֹ̽ ش ǹ οϿ. ׷ ̷ ǵ õ Ű ǰų ǿµ ⺻ ٷ 谡 û ϰ ׷κ 뿡 ҽŰ ظ ѵ ִ.

2018 6.12Ͽ ̰ ̼ ȭظ ù » . ȭ Ⱑ ǰ ǿ. ׷ ݵ ȭ ̷ϰ ȭ ϱ Ͽ ο ؽ ʴ´ٴ 㺸ϸ ̸ 㺸ϴ , ġ س ʿϴ.

ǥϰ ȭ ٲٴ ٷ ̷ , ġ ϱ ù ȴ. Ӹ ƴ϶ ̰ ݵ ȭ ̷ϱ , ̴.  

 

   

 

 6.12̰ ̼ȸ Ⱑ ϴ ̰迡 ȭ ̰ Ͽ ȭο ̷ ݵ ȭ ο ְ ϰ ִ. ׷ ̷ ̰ȭ 㺸ϴ , ġ õ ʴ ǰó ִ.

ݵ ٹ ׷ ֱ ̸ ϴ ҽŰ ̻ 谡 ִ. 籹 ̱ Ѻθ ´ ִ 谡 ϴ ȣ ҽ ȭ Ӱ ٴ п ŵ »簡 ̴.

  ϰ ȭ üϴ ҽ ؼϴ ȿ ŷġ ̸ ư ݵ ȭ 㺸ϴ ִ ߵ ̴. ̱ ݵ Ӿƴ϶ ȭ ٶٸ 𡷰 ȭü ̴.

 

() о ּż մϴ.

http://surprise.or.kr/board/view.php?table=global_2&uid=193736
172.251.88.244
г
  ȣ               ȸ      
ϵ Խù ϴ.
1
׽Ű,ý۹ | °
̵Ұ | ޹ħ | ȸ | | Copyright ̵.
: ǵ 13 Ķ 930ȣ T. 02-761-1678 F.02-6442-0472 poweroftruth@daum.net